Can blockchain & cryptocurrencies protect against financial data loss?

The premise is simple.

Does transacting in the crypto-currency ecosystem protect consumers against data/monetary loss?

We don’t know (at this point 🙂 ) but this is a fairly broad concept so let’s break this down a bit.

There have been  a few big examples of data breaches over the past 10 years – US based , UK based .   Among these – let’s take a fairly recent example to analyze this further.

Equifax data breach 143 million US domiciled users had their personal information hacked. This included  SSNs, birthdates, addresses, driver’s license number, few credit card numbers & dispute agreements.

2 key vulnerabilities contributed to this in my opinion –

  1. Consumer’s PI being stored at a centralized location (Equifax or it’s associate’s servers) in the first place.
  2. Consumer’s need to provide fiat credit card numbers/bank details to vendors/merchants/service providers for a particular goods/service.                          The service Equifax provided was credit checks. Others like Target  (which had a similar breach back in 2014) needed it for retail commerce.

Now let’s look at cryptocurrencies & their underlying blockchain technology and see if they remove these 2 vulnerabilities and/or add some new ones. 

For simplicity’s sake, let’s only look at Bitcoin, Litecoin & Ether – the first 2 are most likely to be used the most for daily financial transactions. The last one or rather the underlying platform will be used the most for smart contracts in the near foreseeable future at least.

Let’s also assume these cryptocurrencies themselves are relatively comparable to fiat currencies from an economic vantage – we won’t get into further value-judgement on the current valuation of these currencies or whether their volatility ever goes down to support their medium of exchange functionality.

Let’s play along & also assume that in the near future – merchants & consumers readily use & accept any of the above cryptos.

Vulnerability #1

If consumers trade in bitcoin/litecoin/eth do they store their PI at a centralized location?

Derivative of above question –

Can the PI be hacked from there to commit financial fraud? 

Yes bitcoin, litecoin & eth transactions are pseudonymous – which means just by looking at transactions one can only see the public keys & addresses, but not the real world identities of who did which transaction.

However, how did the consumers get these cryptos in the first place?

Most would have bought on a marketplace or exchange which means one would have needed to upload their KYC documents. Exchanges need this for AML.  So, yes exchanges still do hold some form of PI/KYC documents which by definition then can be hacked.

Now, things get slightly interesting on the second part of the question – “can this PI be hacked to commit financial fraud or in other words is it possible for consumers to lose money directly if this PI gets hacked“?

It’s clear that KYC documents can be hacked. How about the money?

What do hackers need to steal your crypto-money?  The answer would be the crypto holder’s private keys. You lose your private key, you lose your cryptos. (Period. Quantum computers make things even more interesting – but even if they come around, there would be harder & more lucrative problems for them to solve) .                                                      Some exchanges/wallets do hold their users’ private keys, so it’s fair game. However with more consumer education & better wallet protection, this risk will get significantly lesser in the coming days.

So an objective verdict would be this particular vulnerability is not really completely eliminated if consumers switch from fiat to cryptos.

Vulnerability #2

Do consumers need to provide their credit card/financial information to avail goods/service?

The answer is a resounding no. This is where the benefits of cryptos come out quite strongly. Since the bitcoin,litecoin,ethereum eco-system is decentralized & protected by cryptography, consumers can do a peer to peer transfer to a vendor/service provider’s public key (read bank account) and get services/goods in return. Transaction history on an immutable, publicly transparent blockchain removes the trust component out of the equation. However, some services like credit checks will need to be re-architected for this purpose.

There is a caveat to the above being always correct though.

Thanks to the “blockchain experts” out there  – people have been led to believe that distributed/blockchain always means immutable. Nope. Not quite.

It would get slightly technical to explain the why behind this but – in general, the power/immutability lies in the consensus mechanism – the more the number of validating nodes in the network & the stronger the consensus mechanism- the safer the network in. Else, all bets are off on this one.

So an objective verdict would be this particular vulnerability is fairly mitigated if consumers switch from fiat to cryptos, provided the network strength remains strong.

Do any new vulnerabilities crop up in the crypto-world?

So far, it’s 1-0 in favor of the cryptos. So, is it all hunky-dory then for the crypto world?

Remember the DAO hack ? A hacker siphoned off close to 80mil USD due to a code vulnerability. Now, this was something very specific to Ethereum and it’s underlying smart contract platform. However, with more functionality gradually added to the bitcoin protocol, the probability of such hacks increases.

To draw an analogy, think of a house with only a door to enter/exit. Now think of a house with a glass roof, an open balcony &  multiple doors & windows. Bitcoin, Litecoin with its limited scripting capabilities (so far) belong to the former camp. Ethereum virtual machines being turing complete belongs to the latter camp. More surface area exposed/functionality = increased probability of burglary/hack.

So an objective verdict would be that this particular vulnerability is a new addition to the crypto-world, hitherto unseen in a grand sustained scale in the fiat financial world.

Wannacry & other ransomware/ICO phishing can be added here for completeness sake. Bitcoin’s pseudonymity, available mixer services did help in some regard, however the public keys & the coins of the attackers are invariably tainted. Converting back to fiats goes via the exchanges where the KYCs come in. Attackers can also convert their coins to more private coins like Monero, Zcash etc. and this is where regulators will focus more in the coming years.

What’s the final verdict then?

Is it all fair & square when we move to the crypto world?  This is where personal value judgements make it interesting. The strength of a chain lies in it’s weakest link. In the author’s opinions mitigation of vulnerability#2 is an immense gain, a by-product of the decentralized architecture underlying the crypto eco-system. The probability of a grand scale loss is virtually non-existent because the data is decentralized.

On the smart contract or new shared economy paradigm, no matter how strong the quality assurance is, there is always a probability of software bugs. But with more peer review  solidity language is bound to get more robust in future.

So overall – the verdict in the author’s opinion is fairly clear- the crypto-universe & the underlying blockchain technology does seem to score favorably over the current centralized architecture in the long run in the context of protecting consumers from financial data loss.

 

Disclaimer

This document is for educational purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding any course of action, without limitations. The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer.

Looking back at BitcoinGold fork

Disclaimer

This document is for educational purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding any course of action, without limitations. The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer.

5 days have passed since Bitcoin has seen yet another hard fork which resulted in a brand new cryptocurrency – BitcoinGold (BTG).

It’s also almost 2 weeks ago when I wrote about what might happen to the crypto-ccy prices post the hard fork  here

Was I right? Did the data predict the future accurately?

Let’s find out 🙂  We try to analyze 2 questions raised here and here

  1. Did Bitcoin lose value post the fork?  Or in other words – would it have been worthwhile to buy BTC till the hard fork on an absolute measure ?

  2. Did other altcoins grow faster than Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash post the fork? Or should I have bought prime altcoins prior to the fork instead  to gain relatively?

Graph1_includingBitcoin

Coins_1028

Again, at this scale – because Bitcoin dominates so much, it’s difficult to see how other cryptos reacted.

But it answers point#1 – as predicted here , i.e Bitcoin itself will NOT lose value post this fork.

Let’s now remove Bitcoin from the mix now & retrace the graph

ALT_Comparisons_1029

It’s easy to see that BitcoinGold started at non-zero & lost value dramatically.

Looking at the slopes just visually, ZCash & Bitcoincash had almost identical spikes post the fork, rest of the currencies remained fairly stable (at this scale).

Let’s look at percentage changes now – Bitcoin, BitcoinCash & Zcash were the only ones which gained.

However, do note that BTG’s value was literally created from nothing, so you can actually say BTC’s value would have been 102+76.96 = 179$ which beats everything else by a long distance.

ALT_Comparisons_1029

Where do I go from here?

Both questions raised earlier were answered – Bitcoin would have indeed been a good buy before the hard fork, better than the prime alt-coins.

We haven’t passed any value judgement whether BitcoinGold is worth anything.

However, above summary only makes sense if there is a marketplace for BitcoinGold.

Some exchanges like Bitfinex , Binance, HitBTC & Yobit have already enabled BitcoinGold trading.

However, since none of the private wallets have enabled BitcoinGold yet, folks who transferred their Bitcoin to the private wallets before the fork are stuck as there is no way to move them yet.

Unless BitcoinGold gets their act together & implements the features mentioned on their roadmap  quickly enough, I believe as soon as few of the bitcoin wallets enable BitcoinGold, folks will start selling it off.

If I am to draw a timeline with possible actions & effects –

Probable course of Action A

  1. No news on replay protection or testnet or more bad news from bitcoin gold stable –  BitcoinGold sells off but not dramatically on the exchanges mentioned earlier.
  2. One or few of the wallets enable Bitcoingold
  3. Still no news.
  4. BitcoinGold nosedives to near zero

Probable course of action B

  1. BitcoinGold team successfully completes
  2. One or few of the wallets enable Bitcoingold
  3. BitcoinGold still has a selloff, but recovers to a non-zero value.

Which of these will come true?

Only time will tell. But, it will be fun to see which of the above come true or if we have something completely different 🙂

What do you think ?

Altcoins in the mix – analyzing Bitcoin’s upcoming hard fork

Disclaimer

This document is for educational purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding any course of action, without limitations. The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer.

This is an extension to the original article which analyzes Bitcoin’s upcoming twin forks. See original article which tracks Bitcoin vs Bitcoin cash &ETH here

This post tries to include altcoins & looks for patterns and attempts to answer the question –

Should we be purchasing altcoins before the fork?

or

During the last fork – did altcoins grow faster than BTC & BCH?

Wolf-altcoins

Experts say they do. Let’s do some data crunching !

Graph below shows major crypto-coins vs USD daily high prices from Bitfinex.

crypto_Alts

At this scale, no significant trends in the altcoin universe (tracking major altcoins per coinmarketcap) can be observed.

Since BTC dominates above graph, let’s remove it and see if we can find any significant patterns.

Now, we begin to have some fun.

  • ETH, ZEC seem to have gained in the immediate aftermath.
  • End of Aug – Monero gained quite a bit.

otherCryptos

 

How about percentage changes from previous daily highs?

Inline with the observations from above – further underscores the fact how volatile the market is.

Altcoins-PercentageChange

Conclusion

Doesn’t change from the conclusion drafted earlier

Do you agree/ disagree/ think this is madness? Please do comment.  🙂

Analyzing Bitcoin’s upcoming hard forks

Disclaimer

This document is for educational purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding any course of action, without limitations. The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer.

“Is history going to repeat itself ?”

Two Bitcoin hardforks are upcoming – Bitcoin Gold & Segwit2x. Without judging pros/cons this article attempts to answer 2 questions –

Q1 How did Bitcoin cash BCH derive its value during the earlier fork?

The new BCH + BTC value just after the fork wasn’t equal to old BTC value prior to the fork and if/how we can explain the value creation of BCH out of thin air from an economics standpoint.

Q2 From a monetary perspective, can we predict what’s going to happen on/after the dual hard forks?

Key dates to note before we proceed further – 

  1. BTC – BCH hard fork happened on Aug 1st  which is when the BCH graph starts.
  2. BTC – Bitcoin Gold (BCG) hard fork is planned on Oct 25th.
  3. BTC- Segwit2x hard fork is planned at block #494,784 – sometime in November.

Let’s look at some historical action first

Graph below shows BTC, ETH, BCH vs USD daily prices from Bitfinex – using its public Rest APIs. Plotted using plotly. 

CryptoPricePoints

To answer Q1 ->

Indeed the price aftermath wasn’t sum of parts though, this is probably not uncommon if we look at historical spinoffs of companies.

Before plotting the graphs, a naive expectation might have been the following – about beginning of July 2017 (or a month earlier from the announced date) people will start buying BTC expecting the upcoming split.

It doesn’t seem to be the case, price didn’t drastically move – hovered around 2000 USD mark since May 2017.

Compared to now, where the price of BTC has moved 25% in a 4 day period (Oct 11-Oct 15th).  So the price differential on Aug1st is probably best explained by market FUD.

On the topic of history repeating itself – this clearly seems to be a hitherto unknown phenomenon or investors have become savvier – more people now understand that the new coins are unlikely to be zero valued in the beginning.

To answer Q2 ->

For the BTG hardfork, while there is no doubt that existing holders of Bitcoin should move their coins to a private wallet prior to Oct 25th, since most exchanges might not support the new coins, question remains whether we should buy some more BTC at current price of ~5500 USD.

If we look at what happened after BCH split , BTC still gained, and even though BCH tanked for a few days (and BCG’s future might be on similar lines), BCH posted it’s all time high 3 weeks after. Whether people were able to sell at the top is another story. 

There is something we haven’t discussed so far though –

How about the impact of having other altcoins in the mix?

This becomes a topic in itself and the explanation is quite interesting ,  see here 

Conclusion

Read disclaimer again 🙂 !

Bearing all that in mind, it probably still makes sense to go long BTC in the remaining days but transfer all to a non-exchange based wallet prior to Oct 25th. 

So what are you going to do my friend? Please comment.